Spatial analysis. For the spatial analysis, average SO2 and NO2
levels were compared between different areas. The North Sea
ECA was divided into three zones: (1) the Northern part of the
ECA; (2) the BAQPZJR and; (3) the English Channel. In addition,
a fourth zone was added outside the SECA in the Bay of Biscay
(Supplementary Fig. 14). The Baltic Sea was not included in the
spatial satellite data analysis due to the substantial in?uence of
land-based sources and the lack of satellite coverage for the winter
months in the northern Baltic Sea.
Temporal analysis SO2. Several studies provided scienti?c evi-
dence of the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on
ambient SO2 levels, although this mainly concerned inland SO2
pollution, pollution levels over sea were less impacted63,67.
Additionally, the implementation of the global sulfur cap in 2020
marked a turning point for SO2. Consequently, the temporal data
analysis for SO2 excluded the year 2020 to ensure unbiased
comparability.
For the temporal analysis of SO2, ?rst the SO2 VCD maps per
month (i) for the period before (2018–2019) and after
(2021–2022) the global sulfur cap came into effect were combined
in a monthly mean SO2 VCD map. As the year 2020 was omitted,
the period before and the period after the global sulfur cap
implementation composed the same amount of months (21).
SO2Period VCD? ? ?
?
21
i
SO2i
21
VCD? ? ?2?
This data demonstrated substantial seasonal variability in
pollution levels (Supplementary Fig. 7). The years 2018 and 2022
could not be used as they did not contain data for the full year.
Therefore, the annual SO2 VCD maps of 2019 and 2021 were
calculated. In the second step, the proportional difference
between these two maps was calculated to create the proportional
difference between the annual SO2 VCD.
Diff SO2 %? ? ?
SO22021 SO22019
SO22019
?3?
Temporal analysis NO2. In 2022, Ward Van Roy et al. used
TROPOMI data to evaluate the impact of the implementation of
the NECA28. That analysis was limited to the determination of
the absolute difference in NO2 VCD between 2020 and 2021. This
indicated a potential decrease of NO2 in the northern part of the
North Sea SECA, but an increase in the southern part. However,
by looking at the absolute difference, areas with high pollution
levels are more prone to be highlighted. In addition, the analysis
was limited to the years 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by
the global COVID-19 pandemic28,67,68. Riess et al. reported a
reduction of observed NO2 concentrations in shipping lanes,
between 10 and 20% as a result of the global COVID-19
pandemic69. For these reasons, a wider analysis was required that
incorporated the relative impact of the NOx regulations on the
overall NO2 pollution levels. The NOx temporal analysis in this
study focused on two analyses, an annual proportional difference
and a monthly proportional difference. It must be acknowledged
that, due to limited satellite coverage throughout the year the
Baltic Sea ECA could not be fully assessed.
For the annual proportional difference, a similar analysis was
conducted as what was performed for SO2, while for NO2, data
for the complete 2022 was obtained. With 2021 being the turning
point year, with the introduction of the NECA, the years 2019
and 2022 were compared.
DiffNO2 %? ? ?
NO22022 NO22019
NO22019
?4?
As initially a potential seasonal effect was observed (Supplemen-
tary Fig. 10), an average monthly proportional difference was also
calculated. First, monthly mean VCD maps were created for the
period before (BFNC) and after (AFNC) the NECA came into effect.
The BFNC period was composed of the months fromMay 2018 until
December 2020 (32 months), and the AFNC period was composed
of the months from January 2021 until December 2022 (24 months).
Thus, for every month (i) two or three years (j) were available.
NO2i period VCD? ? ?
?
years
j
NO2j
years
VCD? ? ?5?
This provided 12 NO2 maps before (BFNC) and 12 NO2 maps after
(AFNC) the NECA came into force. In the second step, the
proportional difference between these maps was calculated per month.
DiffNO2i
%? ? ?
NO2i AFNC NO2i BFNC
NO2i BFNC
?6?
In the ?nal step, the average monthly proportional difference
was calculated
DiffNO2 %? ? ?
?
12
i
DiffNOi
12
%? ? ?7?
To provide an analysis throughout the entire 2018–2022
period, the years 2020 and 2021 were not omitted. As NO2 levels
in 2021 were lower compared to 2020 (Supplementary Fig. 13),
this almost certainly creates a negative bias for the period after the
NECA came into force.
It must also be acknowledged that local concentrations of NO2
are affected by the lifetime through background levels of NO2
itself, O3, and available sunlight70. As these vary in time, this will
in?uence uncertainty in temporal comparisons. This dynamic is
investigated in detail by Riess et al., showing that this will
in?uence the calculated changes in emissions69, not VCD levels
used for this study. Meteorological conditions, driving dispersion,
will also show temporal variability in?uencing the extent to which
the study areas will be impacted by land-based sources or
inversely drive ship emissions outside of the study areas. Such
effects are not accounted for in this study but are expected to be
minor given the year-to-year comparison.
Data availability
The anonymized full Belgian airborne monitoring dataset is available on the repository:
https://doi.org/10.24417/bmdc.be:dataset:2687. The raw remote measurement data of the
other Bonn Agreement countries is not provided as the data is legally owned by the
authorities of the relevant countries and can therefore not be distributed. The port
inspection results were provided by EMSA; however, the original data can not be made
available due to legal concerns. The annual results of the remote monitoring efforts of the
BA CPs, the inspection results of the EU MS and the sanctions and violations observed
by the BA CPs are available on the repository: https://surv.naturalsciences.be/d/
76719a8375fd409ebe5f/. The TROPOMI satellite data and geo-data are available on the
repository: https://surv.naturalsciences.be/d/04c1441989684255b6ed/.
Code availability
The code used for the satellite analysis is available on the repository: https://surv.
naturalsciences.be/d/3b8de56010584c39ac4b/.
Received: 28 June 2023; Accepted: 9 October 2023;
ARTICLE COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7
14 COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | (2023) 4:391 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7 | www.nature.com/commsenv