These measurements were conducted by Chalmers University
(114 in 2016) and the Belgian coastguard aircraft (23 in 2022). As
suf?cient data was not available for temporal analysis and as these
measurements were conducted with the same sensor technology,
the data at the SECA border was combined for the spatial
analysis.
The emission data was ?tted on an S-curve in function of the
distance to the SECA border (db) and the distance to port (dp).
Non compliance %? ? ? ?k p?
1? eo?dxm? ? p ?1?
with:
k ? highNon compliance rate ?%?
p ? lowNon compliance rate ?%?
o ? Non compliance increase=decrease rate ?%?
m ? midpoint distance ?km?
dx ? distance to SECAborder=port
The weighted average non-compliance rates were used for the
factors k and p, the least square method was applied for the
determination of the factors o and m.
Inspection results of port inspection authorities in the Bonn
Agreement. In accordance with the EU Sulphur Directive and the
Commission Implementing Decision, the port state authorities of
the EU MS conduct sulfur inspections35,36. These are done by
either documentary inspection or by analyzing the fuel in
accordance with the fuel inspection guidelines from IMO58.
Within the scope of this research and the work conducted under
the BA, inspection and sanctioning results from port State
authorities from 9 out of 10 BA CPs were obtained. This data is
part of the annual inspection results that are reported to the EC.
The most CPs apply a 0.15% threshold for reporting infringe-
ments to the EC. Of all BA CPs, two are located outside the ECA
(Spain and Ireland) and two are currently not reporting to the EC
(Norway and the United Kingdom). In addition to the sulfur
inspection results, NOx inspection results were also collected. As
NOx is currently not regulated through an EU directive, inspec-
tion results are currently not being shared with the EC.
EU inspection results and Thetis-EU. The EU Sulphur Directive
led to the creation of Thetis-EU, an online database used for
exchanging inspection results. EMSA manages and hosts the
database. Thetis-EU is accessible to inspectors across all EU MS,
including Norway and Iceland. However, due to Brexit, the UK
no longer has access to the database36,59.
Keel laying date. Information on the KLD is required for the
determination of the tier level when assessing NOx compliance.
For the Belgian NOx remote monitoring assessment, this KLD
data was acquired based on merging two database sources: (1) the
Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) of the
IMO60 and; (2) Thetis-EU of EMSA. The GISIS database was ?rst
used to gather information on OGVs larger than 75 meters with
construction year. In the second step, EMSA provided the accu-
rate KLD28. For the Danish analysis, a ship database was acquired
from IHS Markit.
Inspection results. Under the EU Member States’ obligations to
report inspection outcomes to the EC as stipulated by the EU
Sulphur Directive and Commission Implementing Decision35,36,
data on sulfur inspections conducted by the EU MS were
obtained from EMSA59. As most, but not all, BA CPs are part of
the EU, there is a certain overlap with the BA data. The EU data
contains more States and includes all EU MS outside the SECAs.
The EMSA data therefore gives a broader overview of the
inspection results throughout the EU. However, the EU data does
not contain results on penalties. Moreover, due to the lack of EU
regulation regarding NOx emissions from OGVs, the EMSA data
does not contain NOx inspection results.
The EMSA website publicly displays the amount of port
inspections and compliance levels resulting from documentary
inspections conducted by EU MS59. Its purpose is to enable
EMSA to deliver thorough reports to the EC to assess the
implementation of the EU Sulphur Directive by the EU MS35,36.
Additionally, the EMSA website includes records of non-
compliance detected through fuel sample analysis. However, the
actual number of fuel samples themselves is not available on
the website. A request for this information was made to EMSA
to facilitate the analysis of temporal trends in fuel sample
results.
Statistical analysis of remote monitoring data and port
inspection results. Previous studies using the Belgian airborne
data have already shown that emission measurements deviate
from a normal distribution24,26,28. When the distribution of
remote measurement data is compiled, they initially appear to
follow a normal pattern, with the emission limit as the central
point. However, although small negative values are occasionally
observed, there are no highly negative values, while very high FSC
values are possible. As a result, this inevitability renders the
distribution non-normal. Pearson chi-square tests were used to
assess the difference in compliance rate between two locations/
deployments, with statistical signi?cance de?ned as P < 0.0561.
Satellite analysis. A spatiotemporal analysis was conducted using
satellite data from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument
(TROPOMI) Sentinel 5 to investigate the distribution and changes
in SO2 andNO2 levels over European waters. The temporal analysis
of SO2 focused on the evaluation of the impact of the global sulfur
cap, which entered into force in 202062, while the temporal analysis
of NO2 focused on the implementation of the European NECAs in
202118. Additionally, a spatial analysis compared SO2 and NO2
pollution levels between different areas within the ECAs and dif-
ferences between the ECAs and regions outside the ECA.
TROPOMI data. Data was gathered from TROPOMI on board
the Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite, which is operated
by the European Space Agency (ESA). The satellite data contains
measurements of the SO2 and NO2 VCD in the lower atmo-
spheric layer (up to 80 km). For SO2, the retrievals from the
scienti?c COBRA V01 scheme processed by BIRA-IASB were
used63 for the period May 2018 until September 2022. For NO2,
the satellite operational data product (Level 2 data) was collected
from the Copernicus Open Access Hub64 for the period May
2018 until December 2022, using the PAL v2.3.1 retrieval algo-
rithm. With the NO emissions converted to NO2, factors such as
ambient meteorological conditions, O3, and solar radiation
in?uence the conversion speed. However, conversion is con-
sidered to be in the time span of seconds to tens of minutes
during daytime65,66. Therefore, the NO2 satellite analysis gives a
good representation of NOx pollution levels.
TROPOMI retrievals for SO2 and NO2 have been ?ltered based
on their quality assurance (QA) value. Only pixels with a QA
value equal to or larger than 0.75 were selected, removing cloudy
pixels (cloud radiance fraction > 0.5) and erroneous retrievals64.
Subsequently, they were averaged to generate monthly VCD
products. The monthly average VCD products were further
compiled using ArcGIS and Qgis to generate VCD maps for
spatial and temporal analysis.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7 ARTICLE
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | (2023) 4:391 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7 | www.nature.com/commsenv 13