shipping sector. Therefore, this study strongly recommends the
revision of current NOx regulations, the implementation of
additional NOx emission regulations and decisive and effective
enforcement measures in the North Sea and Baltic Sea.
Furthermore, the increased NO2 VCD in the Bay of Biscay, the
Mediterranean Sea and Iberian coast are highly notable. These
?ndings strongly emphasize the importance of establishing a
Mediterranean NECA in conjunction with the Mediterranean
SECA, which is entering into force on May 1, 202442. The
introduction of a North Atlantic NECA encompassing the waters
of France, Spain, and Portugal is also recommended. Based on the
analysis conducted on the existing European NECAs, it should be
emphasized that the introduction of additional NECAs without
enhanced emission regulations would not result in the anticipated
improvements in air quality.
The ?ndings from this study emphasize the need to review the
current air quality models that include ship emissions31. These
models should accurately incorporate both the real-world emis-
sion factors re?ecting actual ship emissions and the observed
compliance levels at sea, accounting for spatial variations within
the ECAs. By updating these models, valuable insights could be
gained on the health impact of shipping, which could serve as a
driving force for policymakers to reconsider and improve the
prevailing international regulatory framework.
Methods
Research area
Bonn Agreement. The BA is a regional cooperation established in
1969 to prevent marine pollution from OGVs in the North Sea.
Initially, this focused on oil pollution. The BA consists of 11 CPs
including all North Sea coastal States, Spain, Ireland and the EU
(represented by EMSA)43. Among others, through intensive
cooperation, the BA recorded a signi?cantly reduced amount of
oil pollution over the last two decades44–46. Over the years, the
BA was expanded to include other harmful substances besides oil.
From 2015, several BA CPs petitioned the BA to extend the scope
of the BA to include air pollution from shipping. In October 2019,
the Ministerial Meeting of the BA formally approved the exten-
sion of the scope of the BA to include MARPOL Annex VI,
recognizing the BA as the appropriate intergovernmental forum
to roll out OGV emission monitoring activities43,47.
North Sea and Baltic Sea emission control area. The establishment
of the ECAs was included in the adoption of the MARPOL Annex
VI regulations in 200815. After several years of negotiations, the
North and Baltic Sea SECAs were established in 2011, in addition
to ECAs in North America and the Caribbean Sea17. The SECA
covers the North Sea, the English Channel, and the Baltic Sea.
The European NECAs were established in 202118. The North and
Baltic Sea NECAs cover the same area as the SECAs and are
therefore both referred to as ECAs. The North and Baltic Sea
ECAs cover a vast sea area, spanning from the English Channel to
the Russian border, impacting air quality for over 280 million
European citizens.
Remote measurement data in the Bonn Agreement
Remote monitoring locations. To obtain a comprehensive assess-
ment of the impact of maritime SO2 emission regulations in the
European SECAs, annual compliance monitoring data from ?ve
?xed monitoring sites and nine airborne monitoring operations
from six BA CPs in the SECA were analyzed (Supplementary
Table 2), encompassing a total of 115,274 OGV measurements.
Some deployments have been terminated, others are still ongoing,
data from operations that are still ongoing were obtained from:
(1) MUMM operates the Belgian coastguard aircraft equipped
with a sniffer sensor from 2015; (2) BSH (Hamburg, Germany) is
in charge of the German network of ?xed sniffer stations from
2015, with stations in Hamburg, Kiel and Bremerhaven; (3) TNO
(Delft, The Netherlands) operates a ?xed sniffer station at the
port of Rotterdam in The Netherlands on behalf of the Human
Environment and Transport Inspectorate (ILT) from 2015; (4)
Explicit executes RPAS measurements with dual mini-sniffers on
behalf of EMSA in Denmark, France, Germany, Lithuania and the
Spain29,48–57 from 2019. Data from following terminated opera-
tions was used: (1) Chalmers University (Goteborg Sweden)
operated an airborne sniffer and a ?xed sniffer station at the
Great Belt bridge in Denmark on behalf of the Danish Environ-
mental Protection Agency (EPA) from 2015 to 2020; (2) Explicit
(Virus, Denmark) conducted airborne measurements using heli-
copters equipped with dual mini-sniffers, and uses single mini-
sniffers on RPAS, in Denmark on behalf of the Danish EPA from
2017 to 2022; (3) Explicit, conducted dual-sniffers measurement
with a helicopter in the Netherlands in cooperation with ILT
in 2016.
Out of the total measurements taken, the majority (101,464)
were conducted using ?xed stations along frequently navigated
shipping lanes. This was followed by airborne measurements
carried out by aircraft (8210), and subsequently by RPAS and
helicopter measurements using mini-sniffers (4732). The Belgian
airborne dataset contributed to more than half of the total
number of airborne measurements (6961). However, the number
of measurements conducted by any of the ?xed sniffer sites
greatly surpasses the number of measurements conducted by the
airborne monitoring platforms. For determining average non-
compliance rates within the SECA, a weighted average was
calculated based on the number of measurements per station or
deployment.
Compliance cutoff levels. Three different cutoff levels were used to
assess possible violations: 0.20% FSC, 0.15% and 0.13% FSC.
These three cutoff levels were used to facilitate the evaluation of
variations in non-compliance levels across different scales, as a
direct comparison of average FSC levels was not feasible due to
the unavailability of raw measurement data. In addition, although
remote monitoring stations and platforms employ similar tech-
niques, slight differences in measurement methodologies and
uncertainties exist among the different stations. Nonetheless, the
data used in this study remains suitable for conducting a com-
parative analysis of general temporal and spatial compliance
trends.
Selection of data for temporal analysis. Several stations or plat-
forms only measured a low number of vessels for certain years. A
minimum of 100 operational measured OGVs per year was
applied for the temporal compliance analysis. As a result, in total
seven annual compliance results were omitted from four different
locations.
Spatial trend analysis. For the selection of the measurement sites
for the spatial analysis, a minimum continued measurement
period of two years and a total of 200 measured OGVs was
applied. Locations that did not meet this requirement were either
omitted or added to the location of the nearest other remote
measurement location. The RPAS data from Lithuania (142
measurements in 2021) was therefore omitted. The data from the
different airborne assets in Denmark were merged to one loca-
tion. Furthermore, the airborne mini-sniffer measurements of the
Netherlands in 2016 were added to the Belgian airborne
measurements.
For the spatial analysis, in addition to the SECA measurements,
measurements conducted at the southern ECA border were used.
ARTICLE COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7
12 COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | (2023) 4:391 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7 | www.nature.com/commsenv