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Full text: Deriving pre-eutrophic conditions from an ensemblemodel approach for the North-West European seas

van Leeuwen et al. 
Two model systems (JRC and SMHI) were suffering from quite high 
RMSD values, although these were mostly caused by just a few areas 
(mainly small estuarine/coastal areas with high inputs and 
‚.nsufficient spatial resolution in the models). 
2.4 Assessment areas 
As models differed in their spatial resolution and domain coverage, 
evaluation and comparison to observations were applied per area. Here, 
we use the areas as defined by OSPAR for use in the 4” application of 
:he Common procedure (COMP4, Enserink et al, 2019; OSPAR, 
2022b). The areas are based on the eco-hydrodynamic regimes as 
defined by van Leeuwen et al. (2015), refined in the JMP-EUNOSAT 
project (Enserink et al., 2019) and by the OSPAR contracting parties 
10.3389/fmars.2023.1129951 
(OSPAR, 2022a). The area delineation is given in Appendix C, and can 
be seen in Figure 3. Model results were included in the ensemble mean 
for an assessment area if the model domain covered 80% or more of the 
area. As a result, different assessment areas were covered by different 
numbers of models (Figure 3). For two areas model results have been 
'ncluded despite insufficient domain coverage: the Atlantic area (ATL, 
UHH-HZG 59.5% coverage) and the Northern North Sea area (NNS, 
SMHI 78% coverage). The areas included for the individual models are 
visible in Supplementary Figures 5-7 in Appendix F. Areas with the 
highest model coverage are the river plumes in the Southern Bight of 
the North Sea (Scheldt plume 1 and 2, Meuse plume, Rhine plume, 
‚nset) and those in the northern part of the English Channel. 
Maximum number of models contributing is 7, as Cefas was unable 
to provide results for the pre-eutrophic scenario due to technical issues. 
However, Cefas did contribute to the harmonization effort, 
# models 
SE 
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50 
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5 | 
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Do 55 
= 
RT 
x 
SLPM 
„TI 
A) 
15 
1 
5PM 
<C 
RHPM 
MPM 
P 
sCHPM: 
Ds 
CAP 
A 
10 
5 d 
Longitude [deg. E] 
ATL: Atlantic 
LCTI: Channel Coastal Shelf 
Tidally Influenced 
CWMTI: Channel Well Mixed 
Tidally Influenced 
ELPM: Elbe Plume 
ENS: Eastern North Sea 
HPM: Humber plume 
‚U 
15 
MPM: Meuse Plume 
NNS: Northern North Sea 
RHPM: Rhine Plume 
SCHPMI1: Scheldt Plume 1 
SCHPM2: Scheldt Plume 2 
SNS: Southern North Sea 
SPM: Seine Plume 
THPM: Thames plume 
“IGURE 3 
umber of models per assessment area, that have been included in the calculation of area means. 
"rontiers in Marine 1cience 
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