She et al.
Operational Oceanography and Earth System Science
Frontiers In Earth Science | www.frontlersln.org
11
February 2020 | Volume 8 | Article 7
simulations do not artificially drift whereas data assimilation
can always compensate shortcomings in operational mode.
The development of operational oceanography in the last two
decades, by integrating field monitoring, research (knowledge
generation), operation and service, has demonstrated successfully
the value chain of ocean research. In the Baltic Sea region, the
future research is moving to an Earth system scale and be more
responsive, the operational and adaptive level of the services
for marine, climate, environment, and fishery are evolving. The
value chain practiced by the operational oceanography is similar
to other areas, e.g., Earth system research and environment
protection. Seamless monitoring, modeling, and service provides
a unified platform for integrating the research and services.
Next generation operational service system needs capacities
on reconstructing, forecasting and projecting the states of
marine ecosystems in basin and coastal waters. Significant new
knowledge is needed for understanding and forecasting ocean
processes such as inter-basin and sub-basin transport, sub-
mesoscale eddies, coast-estuary interaction, sediment transport,
algae bloom, oxygen depletion, and marine litter transportation.
An idea solution is to carry out monitoring-modeling integrated
and targeted research programs in the Baltic Sea scale (She et ak,
2016). Joint force from BOOS and Baltic Earth community is
a great advantage for responsive and collaborative research on
the development of seamless service capacities, from synoptic
to climate scales, from open sea to local waters, from physical
to biological subsystems. During the procedure, scientific issues
e.g., Baltic Earth GCs and interactions and coupling between
different subsystems, will be addressed. Well-designed research
programs should cover not only dedicated field experiment and
new knowledge generation but also knowledge transfer into
seamless operational model system and product service.
Naturally BOOS and Baltic Earth will consider to engage
other important Baltic networks such as HELCOM, ICOS, and
ICES in their cooperation as Baltic Earth and BOOS already
collaborate with them. Within EN CLIME Baltic Earth and
HELCOM are working together to produce a climate fact sheet
and HELCOM and ICES representatives are members of the
Baltic Earth Advisory Board. In the upcoming EuroSea project,
BOOS and HELCOM partners will work together on improving
fast delivery of HELCOM data to BOOS and a delivery of a better
reanalysis to HELCOM by BOOS to assimilating HELCOM data.
HELCOM is also an important stakeholder for both BOOS
and Baltic Earth communities. Many projects carried out by
BOOS and Baltic Earth partners, such as Baltic Sea Check Point,
CLAIM, ECOSUPPORT, address HELCOM goals. HELCOM
monitoring is an important source of biogeochemical and
biological (lower trophic level) observations for both research
and operational services. Carbon observations from ICOS and
biological observations collected by ICES are important to
BOOS future priority on operational ecology and Baltic Earth
System studies.
Recommendations
BOOS and Baltic Earth communities share similar basic research
instruments, i.e., monitoring and modeling. Their human
resources are also overlapping to a certain degree: most of BOOS
partners are also Baltic Earth partners. Collaboration between
BOOS and Baltic Earth can help in understanding the climate
change influence on the Baltic Sea region in many aspects.
For example, adaptation of well-calibrated, high resolution
operational models (both local and basin scales) to climate
scales can help to reach the last mile to the end users in
climate applications. High resolution BOOS observations, e.g.,
from moorings, ferrybox and shallow water Argo profilers, can
benefit for Baltic Earth system process studies, especially for
extreme events e.g., salty water inflow, storm surge, marine heat
wave, oxygen depletion and algae bloom. The CMEMS ocean
reanalysis, with an operational update to months, can provide
comprehensive data for most recent changes of climate signals
especially statistics of extreme events, although trend analysis
from the reanalysis products are problematic because the number
of observations changes with time.
Hence, under the background of WMO seamless prediction
of Earth systems, GOOS and EuroGOOS focus on provision
of information not only for operational services but also for
climate change and ocean health and for the UN Decade of Ocean
Science, the two communities are motivated to have joint forces
in the following two areas:
1. Harmonization and integration of existing research
and infrastructure:
- Between synoptic and climate scales:
o Harmonizing model calibration and validation
methods for operational and climate scales: Most
of the operational models running by BOOS partners
have regular calibration and validation. In BAL MFC,
such procedure has been standardized based on a
continuous effort since 2004 for developing Copernicus
Marine Service. This includes models both for near real
time forecast and long-term reanalysis. Also the Baltic
Earth community has organized several multi-model
inter-comparisons and validation studies, mainly for
climate scales. The most recent Baltic Earth project
is BMIP. The two task forces should harmonize the
efforts and aim to reach a more general, standardized
calibration and validation procedure for both operational
and climate models.
o Adapting calibrated operational models for climate
study: Although many institutes still use different models
for operational forecast and climate study, there is a
trend that more and more models are developed for both
forecast and climate modeling. However, there still exist
technical challenges when using an operational model
for climate purpose. Some adaptations of the operational
models to climate modeling are still needed.
o Extending the operational forecast range from synoptic
to climate scales (seasonal and decadal predictions): The
Baltic Sea is dominated by many slow processes such as
seasonal stratification and sea ice, saltwater inflows, water
stagnation, and ventilation. Hence, the predictability of
seasonal to decadal variability should be investigated in
an Earth system framework and forecasting capability