1222 Ocean Dynamics (2019) 69:1217–1237
Fig. 3 Satellite SST observations on both model grids. Shown are two
extremes of data coverage. On the 10th of April, the North and Baltic
Seas were nearly fully covered by clouds. On the coarse grid data
is only available on 7 % of the grid points, while for the fine mesh
there are zero observations over the 12-h time window. For the 25th of
May, the domains were nearly cloud free so that there are only small
data-void regions
seadata.bsh.de/csr/retrieve/dod index.html) operated by the
BSH. Apart from water temperature and salinity, the data set
also includes measured concentrations of oxygen, nitrate,
ammonium, phosphate, silicate, and chlorophyll, which
can be used to assess the corresponding concentrations
in the ERGOM model. The validation of the assimilation
experiments will focus on the surface and will be conducted
for both the fine and coarse model grids.
4 Experimental setup
The assimilation experiments are conducted over the time
period from April to July 2012 with an analysis update after
each 12 h. An ensemble of 40 model states is used. The
initial physical ocean state (i.e. ensemble mean) is provided
by the operational run of the HBM model at the BSH. The
BGC model state was initialised on 1st November 2011
using for the Baltic Sea an initial state provided by the
Danish Technical University (generated by the model of
Maar et al. (2011) by M. Maar, personal communication)
and for the North Sea an initial state generated by the model
of Lorkowski et al. (2012). The ensemble perturbations
were computed using second-order exact sampling (Pham
et al. 1998) using the variability of the model state in a
forecast run of the HBM-ERGOM model for April 2012.
The state vector for the assimilation jointly includes the
model fields on both nested model grids (similar to Barth
et al. 2007) and consists of physical and BGC parts on
both nested model grids. For the physical part, the state
vector includes the SSH and the 3-dimensional temperature,
salinity and horizontal velocities. For ERGOM, all 13
prognostic pelagic and 2 benthic variables as well as the
Secchi depth and chlorophyll concentration are included
in the state vector. The two latter diagnostic variables are,
however, only included to access their ensemble values,
but they are not directly updated by the analysis step of
the LESTKF. For the localisation of the analysis step an
influence radius for the observations of 50 km is used for the
coarse grid, while 9 km areused for the fine grid. An inflation
of the ensemble variance with a forgetting factor of ? =
0.95 is used. For the assimilation of the SST observations,
an observation error standard deviation of 0.8 ?C is assumed
as in Losa et al. (2014) for both model grids.
Two assimilation experiments are performed to assess
the different effects of the weakly and strongly coupled
assimilation. The experiment WEAK assimilates the SST
observations so that only the physical model fields in the
state vector are directly updated. BGC model fields react
only dynamically to the changed physical conditions during
the next forecast phase of 12 h. In contrast, in the experiment
STRONG both the physical as well as BGC model fields
are directly updated. Thus, the strongly coupled assimilation
uses the multivariate ensemble-estimated cross-covariances
between the SST and the BGC variables to compute an
update of the biogeochemistry. Further, the experiment
FREE was performed in which the ensemble was integrated
without assimilating observations.
The experiment STRONG is performed in two variants.
STRONG-lin performs the assimilation using the actual