Teil C - Annex
67
before, during and after pile driving events. Based on experience, a resolution by hours (e. g.
DPM hr 1 ) is helpful here. The parameter DP10M d~ 1 , which is a good measure for phenological
descriptions, is too inaccurate for registering the influence of pile driving activities on harbour
porpoises.
Another value to be calculated is “waiting time”, defined as a time interval (minutes) between
two harbour porpoise detections. Because of the chronologically possible autocorrelation
between two detections, at least 10 minutes without detection must pass. Such related har
bour porpoise-positive 10-minute periods are called “encounter” and gaps are called “waiting
time”. Thus, the defined minimum value for “waiting time” is 10 minutes (definition in
Carstensen et al. 2006 and Tougaard et al. 2009).
For integrating the pile driving activities into the statistical modelling, the pile driving data per
pile should be available as machine-readable ASCII file derived from the piledriver’s measure
ment sensors. These files must provide clear identification of the pile, the date and time per
single impact (documentation of time system) and the impact energy (kJ). If the pile driving
data is not available in such detail, at least the total impact energy, total number of impacts as
well as beginning and end (at least correct to 10 minutes) of the pile driving event must be in
cluded in the evaluation. To include in statistical modelling the waterborne noise measured at
the C-POD’s measuring position, the median value (50% percentile) of the single event level
(SEL 50 ) should be available for each pile and measuring position in order to provide a measure
for the volume [dB re 1 pPa 2 s] for the mainly used impact energy.
Influence of pile driving on harbour porpoise activity and harbour porpoise activity re
covery times
To analyse the influence of pile driving on harbour porpoise activity, generalised additive mod
els (GAM, Wood 2006) or generalised linear models (McCullagh & Nelder 1989) should be
used due to the condition of the data (as a rule, not normally distributed data, over dispersion,
heterogeneity of variance, temporal and spatial autocorrelation). Where necessary, these
models can easily be extended to generalised additive mixed models (GAMM, Lin & Zhang
1999) or generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) by inclusion of random factors. For these
methods it is a priori not known over which functional form one or several explanatory varia
bles impact on the dependent variable. Moreover, in addition to the parametric forms of gen
eralised linear models (GLM), a GAM allows for the use of non-linear so-called smoothing
terms to characterise the connection between the dependent (response) and the explanatory
(predictor) variable. Flere, all parameters are included in a purely additive manner, as is the
case also in the traditional linear models.
The analyses can be carried out script-based in the R software (current version 2.15.2, R Devel
opment Core Team 2012), which holds available several different GAM and GLM packages.
Since there is no exactly delineated definition for what exactly is a GAM, these models can be
very variable. The deriving diversity of models is reflected in the various implementations: “mgcv”
(current version 1.7-22, Wood 2006) and “gam” (current version 1.06.2, Hastie & Tibshirani
1990). Other uses include “VGAM” (current version 0.9-0, Yee 2012) and “gamlss” (current ver
sion 4.2-0, Rigby & Stasinopoulos 2005). For GLM, the packages “Ime4” (Bates et al. 2012),
“nlme” (Pinheiro et al. 2012) and “MCMCglm” (Hadfield 2010) and others are important.
Statistical models are subject to ongoing further and new development, which can result in
new or advanced methods being similarly efficient and adequate in answering the given is
sues as are the ones described here. In so far, this method is to be understood as providing
a basis, which may be extended to take into account recent developments.