KLIWAS
Seite 6
KLIWAS
Project 1.03:
Atmospheric and
Oceanic Reference
Data and Climate
Projections for
Coastal and Open
Sea Areas
Air temperature: Differences in temperature between all RCM and ERA-40 are rela
tively small over the North Sea. For the annual means as well as for January and July
nearly all regional models show a smaller variability than ERA-40. The RCMs are
consistently warmer than ERA-40 in winter but colder in July. The fact that, along the
coasts nearly all RCMs are warmer in winter and colder in summer than ERA-40 pos
sibly depends on a continental influence onto the coastal grid points. Since compari
sons with in-situ observations show similar results, it can be assumed, that the re
gional models are closer to the reality, mainly because of their higher spatial resolu
tion.
Global radiation: All models show an increase of global radiation from north to
south for the North Sea area. However, there are big differences in the gradients and
the absolute range. Temporal variability at each grid point is much larger in the
RCMs than in ERA-40. The RCM can basically be divided into two groups, those
which overestimate the annual cycle of global radiation and those that underestimate
it. All models share the tendency for growing differences to ERA-40 during the
summer maximum, i.e. those which over estimate simulate a stronger seasonal cycle
and those which under estimate a weaker seasonal cycle.
Cloud cover: All RCMs simulate similar spatial patterns in cloud cover over the
North Sea with an NW/SE oriented decrease but the differences to the ERA-40 cloud
cover vary strongly between the models. Basically the same separation of the RCMs
as in the simulation of global radiation exists for cloud cover. Models in which over
estimation of global radiation was detected underestimate cloud cover; however, there
are some exemptions. The annual cycles in the RCM vary in time and amplitude
compared to ERA-40. The long-term standard deviations of the majority of the RCMs
are larger than that of ERA-40.
Precipitation: In the RCM precipitation shows a similar pattern as ERA-40. During
the entire year the RCM simulate much more precipitation than ERA-40. The stan
dard deviations of the RCM for the annual mean show higher variability than ERA-
40, while in summer the variability is higher than that of ERA-40 and lower in winter.
Therefore, the annual cycle is more pronounced in ERA-40 than in the RCM.
Some general conclusions can be drawn from the analyses: A higher resolving grid is
favourable close to the coasts. Distant from the coasts on the open sea there is hardly
a difference to models with a lower spatial resolution.