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Full text: Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products

Ocean Dynamics 
4) Springer 
Transect Number 
Fig. 21 The relative deviation of SSC magnitude between the forecasts is displayed for transects in regions I, II, III, V, and VI 
Strong differing values of R mod and R M me occur in the north 
ern part of regions I and III (Trl, Tr2, and Tr5) and in the 
western part of region II (Trl4 and Trl5). Some irregularities 
between the products might evolve because these transects are 
located close to the boundaries of some model domains. At the 
remaining transects in regions I—III, correlations are stable with 
more than 0.85 for R moc i- Similar to the CV statistics, the cor 
relations have the highest values in region IV (Tr24-Tr28) and 
in the Gulf of Finland (Tr43-Tr46). Tr38 and Tr42 in region 
VII have already been detected in the CV statistics and are 
characterized by very low correlation. Time series of transports 
at these transects reveal that FCOOGETM has comparatively 
strong differences in transport patterns. 
The normalized RMSD between each product and the 
MME median (Fig. 24) displays the mean error independent 
of the absolute transport values, which differ severely over the 
whole study area. Transects with high uncertainties, already 
detected in the CV statistics (Fig. 22) and the correlations 
(Fig. 23), are accompanied by high mean error for at least 
one product in Fig. 24. For instance, low correlations at the 
boundaries (Trl, Tr2, Tr5, Trl4, Trl5) are characterized by 
high RMSD and a low number of products (only 3) contribut 
ing to the MME. At Tr7, Trl 0, and Trl 8 in regions I and II, the 
high RMSD of DMI HBM has low effect on the correlation at 
those transects, probably because the MME is calculated with 
six products. This indicates that the number of contributions to 
the MME is important. DMI HBM has high RMSD at most 
transects, which are covered by the model. The transport values 
and thus current values of that model are often higher compared 
to the other products. This is also reflected in the PVD statistics, 
where the final displacements of DMI HBM are highest in 
regions V and VI (Figs. 20 and 24). The closest products to 
Fig. 22 Percentage occurrence of CV categories for the time period 01.04.2013-31.05.2015 in the North Sea (a) and the Baltic Sea (b). The height of 
each box marks 100%. The number of partners providing data is indicated by the number in each box
	        
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