Ocean Dynamics
4) Springer
Transect Number
Fig. 21 The relative deviation of SSC magnitude between the forecasts is displayed for transects in regions I, II, III, V, and VI
Strong differing values of R mod and R M me occur in the north
ern part of regions I and III (Trl, Tr2, and Tr5) and in the
western part of region II (Trl4 and Trl5). Some irregularities
between the products might evolve because these transects are
located close to the boundaries of some model domains. At the
remaining transects in regions I—III, correlations are stable with
more than 0.85 for R moc i- Similar to the CV statistics, the cor
relations have the highest values in region IV (Tr24-Tr28) and
in the Gulf of Finland (Tr43-Tr46). Tr38 and Tr42 in region
VII have already been detected in the CV statistics and are
characterized by very low correlation. Time series of transports
at these transects reveal that FCOOGETM has comparatively
strong differences in transport patterns.
The normalized RMSD between each product and the
MME median (Fig. 24) displays the mean error independent
of the absolute transport values, which differ severely over the
whole study area. Transects with high uncertainties, already
detected in the CV statistics (Fig. 22) and the correlations
(Fig. 23), are accompanied by high mean error for at least
one product in Fig. 24. For instance, low correlations at the
boundaries (Trl, Tr2, Tr5, Trl4, Trl5) are characterized by
high RMSD and a low number of products (only 3) contribut
ing to the MME. At Tr7, Trl 0, and Trl 8 in regions I and II, the
high RMSD of DMI HBM has low effect on the correlation at
those transects, probably because the MME is calculated with
six products. This indicates that the number of contributions to
the MME is important. DMI HBM has high RMSD at most
transects, which are covered by the model. The transport values
and thus current values of that model are often higher compared
to the other products. This is also reflected in the PVD statistics,
where the final displacements of DMI HBM are highest in
regions V and VI (Figs. 20 and 24). The closest products to
Fig. 22 Percentage occurrence of CV categories for the time period 01.04.2013-31.05.2015 in the North Sea (a) and the Baltic Sea (b). The height of
each box marks 100%. The number of partners providing data is indicated by the number in each box