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Full text: Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products

Ocean Dynamics 
Ö Springer 
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3°W 0° 3°E 6°E 9°E 12°E 3°W 0° 3°E 6°E 9°E 12°E 
Fig. 14 Temporally averaged MME mean (left) and standard deviation (right) of SSS in the North Sea in 2014. The black line marks the contour line of 
standard deviation 1, which proceeds approximately along the salinity front of 34 
This has already been detected in previous studies (Rodhe 1998; 
Hordoir et al. 2013). The contour line marking the standard de 
viation of 1 proceeds approximately along the salinity front of 34. 
Such patterns have also been found in comparisons of climate 
models (Biilow et al. 2014). It reflects the difficulties in simulat 
ing the low-salinity fronts in the Norwegian Costal Current. 
The daily spatial averages of SSS from the MME products 
and the individual forecasts in the North Sea are compared in 
Fig. 15. Systematic offsets can be detected between the time 
series from the different forecasts. The salinities from 
METNOROMS are much higher than those from the other 
forecasts, accounting for 35.6. Except for summer time, the 
MyOcean product (METUKFOAM) has the lowest salinities 
of about 34.2. The values from the remaining models vary 
between 34.5 and 34.9. As mentioned in Sect. 2.1, the Baltic 
outflow in the models ROMS and FOAM AMM is defined as 
large river input with the eastern boundary located in the Kat 
tegat, whereas the magnitude of river runoff possibly differs 
between these models. The different extensions of the model 
grids and different boundary conditions might play an impor 
tant role in the uncertainty for this region. 
Between middle of June and middle of August, the salinities 
from almost all models, except METNO ROMS and 
METUK FOAM, drop strongly, reaching a spread of 0.8. 
SMFH HIROMB NS03 shows a marked decline with salinities 
decreasing by 0.7 from about 34.5 to 33.8. In comparison, the 
values from the other forecasts decrease by about 0.2 and 0.5. 
Except during summer, the salinities of the MME products are 
about 34.7, following the seasonal pattern reflected by the en 
semble members (Fig. 15). The values of the MME mean also 
Fig. 15 Daily spatial averages of SSS from the MME mean, MME median (black lines), and the individual forecasts in the North Sea in 2014. The 
ensemble spread (¿standard deviation) is indicated by the yellow-shaded field. The number of forecasts is marked as phis sign
	        
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