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Full text: Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products

Ocean Dynamics 
Ö Springer 
Fig. 11 Monthly mean (a) and 
annual mean (b) bias of SST from 
the MME mean, MME median, 
and the ensemble members in the 
Baltic Sea in 2014. The 
percentage of available satellite 
data per month is marked as 
dotted line 
FCOO DMIDKSS BSHcmod BSHHBM SMHI03 SMHI01 FMIhirlam FMlec DMI MMEmeanMMEmedian 
4.2 Seasonal changes of sea surface salinity 
4.2.1 North Sea 
The annual averages of the MME mean and the standard 
deviation for SSS are shown in Fig. 14. The extent of fresh 
water tongues from the river plumes in the southern North 
Sea is reflected by standard deviations of more than 5 
whereas the values increase to 9 close to the river mouths. 
Fligh standard deviations in these areas indicate that the 
freshwater inputs from the large rivers are simulated differ 
ently by the models. This further leads to the differences in 
the seaward extensions of the river plumes. These variances 
are probably caused by the differing methods or data sets 
that are used for river discharge in the models as highlighted 
in section 2.1. 
Fig. 12 Monthly mean (a) and 
annual mean (b) RMSD of SST 
from the MME mean, MME 
median, and the ensemble 
members in the Baltic Sea in 
2014. The percentage of available 
satellite data per month is marked 
as dotted line 
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 
0.9 r 
FCOO DMIDKSS BSHcmod BSHHBM SMHI03 SMHI01 FMIhirlam FMlec DMI MMEmearMMEmedlan
	        
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