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Full text: Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products

Ocean Dynamics 
4) Springer 
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Longitude 
Fig. 10 Spatial distribution of the RMSD from the individual ensemble members and the MME mean (bottom right) in the North Sea in August 2014 
reflected by the MME products, where the error of the MME 
mean is lower than the error of the MME median. For the MME 
mean, very high RMSDs are only shown at the entrance of the 
Gulf of Finland. In the center of the Baltic Sea, especially in its 
southern part, the error is mostly less than 0.6 °C (Fig. 13). 
In winter, where RMSDs are low, the spatial distribution 
of errors from the ensemble members is more even with 
less extreme values compared to the distribution in July. It 
has to be noted that in winter, the availability of satellite 
observations is usually low in the Baltic Sea, especially in 
the North since this area is often covered by sea ice. During 
this period, the RMSDs of the ensemble members are usu 
ally high which might be related to the low coverage of 
satellite data.
	        
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