Die Kuste, 81 (2014), 273-290
279
Table 1: Amplitude and phase calculated from BSH-HBM output as well as the error compared
to data taken from SHOM (1982) for M2- and S2-tide at selected stations at the German coast.
Station
M2
amp
[cm]
M2
amp err
[cm]
M2
pha
[deg]
M2
pha err
[deg]
S2
amp
[cm]
S2
amp err
[cm]
S2
pha
[deg]
S2
pha err
[deg]
Borkum
107.6
2.8
278
8
28.1
1.0
338
5
Helgoland
113.2
4.6
312
0
30.8
1.9
13
-5
Cult aven
147.9
13.5
340
-4
37.1
2.7
46
-7
Buesum
154.7
-1.5
341
4
41.0
-1.1
47
0
The results in Tab. 1 show that both the amplitude as well as the phase of M2 and S2 is
represented quite well by the model at die considered stations. Only die amplitude at
Cuxhaven has a significant error in comparison widi die SHOM data, but it should be
kept in mind diat diere is also an uncertainty in the observed data. A recent analysis of a
19 year time series at tide gauge Cuxhaven by BSH (personal communication Patrick
Goffinet) gave a M2 amplitude of 138 cm, which would reduce the model error to about
10 cm. Nevertheless the modeled M2 amplitude at Cuxhaven fails the BSH internal quali
ty criteria at the moment and further calibration work is presendy carried out.
When validating the water levels in the North Sea, the analysis is restricted to the peak
values at high and low water because these are the values of highest interest. The exact
timing of the peak values is not considered by this method.
Table 2: Bias and bias-corrected root mean square deviation from observations (RMSD) of total
water level peaks during high and low water at selected stations at the German coast.
Total water level
Station
High water
Low water
Bias
RMSD
Bias
RMSD
[cm]
[cm]
[cm]
[cm]
Borkum
-3
11
10
14
Helgoland
3
14
10
11
Cuxhaven
19
18
5
14
Buesum
15
18
6
17
Whereas the bias’ shown in Tab. 2 at the stations Borkum, Helgoland and Cuxhaven are
mainly explainable by the error in tides, die bias in Buesum can partly be explained by die
very difficult local topographic conditions around tiiat station. The bias-corrected root
mean square deviation from observations (RMSD) which is lower titan 20 cm at all sta
tions, is already sufficiently but titere is of course potential for improvements in die fu
ture. The RMSD is, however, at the same level as it is in die current operational model
BSHcmod.
For station Cuxhaven Fig. 5 shows die frequency distribution of high and low water
level differences. If die bias is considered, die rate of events which are reproduced in a
range of +10 cm is 39 % for high water and 49 % for low water. In a range of +20 cm it
is 69 % for high and 85 % for low water. In die range of +30 cm more than 90 % of
botii high and low water events are reproduced.