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Full text: Operational ocean forecasting for German coastal waters

Die Küste, 81 (2014), 273-290 
278 
of the former V3-NOKU-setup calculated by the previous version of the BSHcmod 
model, which covers die 14 years from 2000 to 2013. The resolution of that setup was 
half of the resolution of the currently used V4 NOKU-setup. Data from die V4-NOKU- 
setup calculated by die BSHcmod V4 is archived from 2008 onwards. 
Because bodi die NA- and the NOKU-setup of die described BSH-HBM model sys 
tem are still in pre-operational mode, only results from the EL-setup calculated by HBM 
is archived at die moment. From diis setup die output is available since April 2013. 
3 Validation 
A quantitative comparison of model results with different kinds of observations — often 
referred to as validation - is an important step in the operational model development cy 
cle. Even though the model version presented here is still at a pre-operational stage and 
some calibration steps need further iteration, die results presented below already give an 
estimate of die lower limit of the quality of the upcoming operational model version. 
The year 2008 was chosen as the main validation period because a comprehensive 
observational data set was already available for diis year. A hindcast run initialized in 
November 2007 was carried out as basis for die validation. Some results of die validation 
of water level, currents, water temperature, salinity and sea ice will be presented in this 
section. 
3.1 Water level 
To analyse die simulated water levels it is sensible to split die analysis into two parts, re 
spectively subsections: The first one on die Nordi Sea, where tides are die main compo 
nent of the local sea level elevation, so tiiat die quality of die model output depends 
mainly on die quality of the simulated tides. Therefore botii tides and total water levels 
were analysed in this subsection. The second subsection is focused on the Baltic Sea, 
where tides are virtually absent and only die total water levels are considered. 
3.1.1 North Sea 
As outlined in section 2.3 die tidal boundary conditions in die applied NOKU-setup are 
based on die 19 dominating tidal constituents. Moreover die validation period is only one 
year, so tiiat a complete tidal analysis of die data is not feasible. Instead die analysis will 
be restricted to die two dominating semi-diurnal tidal constituents M2 and S2. A harmon 
ic analysis of die modeled data yields the results given in Tab. 1 when compared with 
harmonic constants analysed from observations by the French Service Hydrographique et 
Océanographique de la Marine (SHOM 1982).
	        
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