Die Kuste, 81 (2014), 273-290 
284 
In any case salinity is a parameter with a high potential for improvements in future model 
versions with higher (vertical) resolution and applied data assimilation. 
3.5 Sea Ice 
The winter of die year 2008 was relatively mild, so that only little sea ice was observed. 
Fig. 11 shows a comparison of computed and observed sea ice concentration on 
01.03.2008 - die time widi maximum sea ice extent in 2008. The sea ice extent and gen 
eral distribution are quite similar. However, locally die concentrations differ significandy. 
2008.03.01 - BSH-HBM 2008.03 01 - Observation 
Figure 11: Comparison of predicted (left) and observed (right) sea ice concentration in the Baltic 
Sea on 1 March 2008. 
4 Results 
In diis section some recent results will be presented which demonstrate that the new 
BSH-HBM model system could simulate special events of strong public interest. Two 
events which took place in 2013 are highlighted — on the one hand the “Elbe tiood” in 
June and on the other hand the impact of cyclone “Xaver” from 5th to 7th December. 
During both events a strong increase in water levels had been experienced and as precise 
as possible forecasts were needed to minimize the consequences of these events for the 
affected population. 
4.1 Elbe flood in June 2013 
Heavy rainfall in south-east Middle Europe in May and June 2013 caused a flood at vari 
ous rivers in that region. At the river Elbe water levels along the river were measured 
which were never observed before. Of course these enormous water masses caused also 
very high water levels in the tidal influenced part of the Elbe estuary between St.Pauli and 
the weir in Geesthacht which is influenced significantly by the river discharge anyway. 
The forecast of the river discharge was characterized by high uncertainties and there 
fore a high variability from forecast to forecast. Indeed the best estimate forecast of BSH-