Die Kuste, 81 (2014), 255-271 
255 
An Operational Oil Drift Forecasting System for 
German Coastal Waters 
Silvia Majdmann, Frank Janssen , Tborger Brlining, Eckhard KJeine , Hartmut Komo, 
Inge Menpenhaiier-Schiwiacher and Stephan Dick 
Summary 
Today, die presented (oil-) drift and dispersion model is a well-established component of 
the German marine pollution response system. The oil drift model is part of a compre 
hensive operational ocean forecasting system applied at the Federal Maritime and Hydro- 
graphic Agency (BSH). Development of the oil drift model started already in the 1980’s, 
but it was considerably advanced in several directions over die years. The latest develop 
ment is the operationalization of the SeatrackWeb system at BSH. 
A 3-dimensional regional ocean circulation model provides — in combination with 
numerical weather forecasts of die German Weather Service (DWD) — the forcing for the 
oil drift component. The region covered by die model system is die whole Nortii and 
Baltic Sea with special focus on the German Bight and the western Baltic Sea. Based on 
the pre-calculated and archived forcing data die oil drift model can be run on demand at 
any time. The basic approach is a Lagrangian particle tracking metiiod, i.e. die simulated 
oil spill is described by a large number of particles which carry characteristics of specific 
types of oil. By this approach not only the drift but also the so-called “weathering” of die 
oil can be calculated. All fundamental processes which alter the oil during die fate of an 
oil spill, e.g. spreading, dispersion, evaporation and emulsification, are included. 
The particle tracking and oil weathering components, which are at the core of the 
model are connected to a modern, interactive, graphical user interface (GUI), which pro 
vides the user, e.g., with the possibility to directly start simulations from satellite detec 
tions of oil spills. The GUI gives access to several layers of useful information, e.g. ocean 
currents, wind direction, the location of oil platforms or shipping routes. Besides tiiat, it 
visualizes ship signals from die Automatic Identification System (AIS), which are im 
portant means when it comes to die identification die potential source of an oil spill. 
In this paper we first present die current BSH operational ocean forecasting system 
highlighting some recent developments. The core of die oil drift component will be de 
scribed in some detail. The main part of the paper will show results of some real cases. 
Based on diese results some scientific questions like, e.g., die influence of wave induced 
Stokes drift will be discussed. 
Keywords 
SeatrackWeb, oil spill, ocean forecast, operational ocean model, Nordi Sea, Baltic