Meteorol. Z, 22, 2013
N.H. Schade et al.: Regional Evaluation of ERA-40 Reanalysis Data
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Northern Europe, especially during NAO + phases in
winter. It also should be noted that ERA-40 and the
observations differ most at SLP values between
1010 hPa and 1017 hPa in December.
At last the ATs are evaluated for two different refer
ence periods 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2000 (see
Fig. 5) to investigate possible temporal changes. Box 2,
which is closer to the coast, shows an increasing spread
in the whole frequency distribution as well for the obser
vations as for the ERA-40 data. However, there is hardly
any difference of the median between the two periods for
the ERA-40 data. Over the open sea (Box 1), only minor
changes in the percentile values of both data sets can be
detected. A closer look into the summer (JJA) and the
winter (DJF) seasons reveals temperature increases in
both boxes for both data sets and both seasons for the
1981-2000 period compared to the 1961-1980 period:
Slightly higher temperatures in all median values and
an increased spread, but smaller minimum temperatures
for DJF and higher maximum temperatures for JJA can
be found in the southern Box 2, and a small overall
increase in the higher percentiles and almost no changes
in the median over the northern Box 1. The ERA-40 data
show higher JJA maximum temperatures and lower DJF
minimum temperatures than the observations, and also a
smaller increase in the median. The differences between
ERA-40 and GZS JJA maximum temperatures should be
even higher when taking potential radiative heating errors
and the uncertain fraction variability in GZS into account.
The SLP data have no such differences between the
two reference periods in neither of the data sets. The fre
quency distributions of the percentile values suggest on
one hand that the large scale circulation patterns have
not or at least not noticeably changed. On the other hand
it suggests that the SLP is reproduced well by the
ERA-40 reanalysis system in the North Sea area in the
investigated time periods.
4 Summary and conclusions
For the validation of regional climate models, high qual
ity observations and/or reanalyses (i.e. ERA-40) data are
needed as reference of the actual climate state. Compar
isons of marine atmospheric in-situ observations with
ERA-40 show a systematic cold bias for the air temper
ature near the Danish coast in the reanalyses data for
the winter months (DJF). This apparent land-induced bias
does not appear in the analysis for sea level pressure,
probably due to its larger scale and land-sea insensitivity.
The bias may be caused by the interpolation process of
ERA-40 from the spherical calculations to the final grid.
Overall, ERA-40 agrees well with the observations of sea
level pressure and, off the coast, also with the 2 m air
temperature results. Near the coasts, one should be care
ful using ERA-40 air temperature data. The cold bias
compared to GZS temperatures could be partly related
to measurement errors, prominently by radiative heating,
and the uncertain fraction variability. It still should be
accounted for, since ERA-40 itself is biased to the same
degree near the coasts compared to sea-facing boxes. It
should be further noted, that these results refer only to
the two parameters air temperature and sea level pressure
and base on two boxes in the North Sea area only. If a
regularly sampled reanalysis product is compared with
in-situ observations, the sampling bias has to be taken
into consideration also.
A higher resolution of the reanalyses data set might
reduce the land-influenced bias and improve the quality
of air temperature results near the coast. This would
provide a better reference for subsequent high resolution
modelling, coastal engineering, etc., which will become
more and more important in the future. Further investiga
tions are currently under way supporting our thesis: An
evaluation paper, comparing amongst others ERA-40
2 m air-temperatures with the ENSEMBLES RCM
hindcast runs driven by ERA-40, is in preparation for
KLIWAS. It indicates that the higher resolution of the
regional models improves the 2 m air temperature results
near the coasts. I.e., ERA-40 shows colder values in win
tertime compared to the RCMs, too. Further steps have
been undertaken by Saha et al. (2010) with the new
NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR),
using a global coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-
sea ice system with an output of an hourly time resolution
and a horizontal resolution of 0.5°. Validations in the
same way as done here may hint on a better way of
the development of a regional product.
Also, the development of a regional coupled Atmo
sphere-Ocean reanalysis has been discussed and might
be implemented in future studies. At the moment, the
Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) is con
ducting a retrospective analysis of regional climate at the
Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn (MIUB) and
the Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology>, University
of Cologne (IGMK). This regional reanalysis is based on
the COSMO-EU(DE) model with a horizontal grid spac
ing of 7(2.8) km resolution, as it is in operational use at
DWD in the forecasting model suite. A two step nesting,
using ERA-Interim (SIMMONS et al., 2006) as boundary
conditions, is performed. Two main periods of the reanal
ysis will focus on (1) a comparably short time frame of
5 years (2007-2011) with the maximum amount of
observational data, and (2) the past decades (1982—
2011) with a reduced data basis, in order to aim at more
homogeneous time series than typically available in long
term reanalyses (KELLER et al, 2012). First results will
be available soon.
Our analysis clearly indicates the importance of in-situ
observations over the sea to serve as validation set not
only for reanalyses, but also for global and regional cli
mate models. Even a sparse observational data base can
help to the discovery and definition of problems in the
models, if one accounts for the sampling bias. Neverthe
less, pseudobiases and measurement errors are still