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6 Conclusions
The most significant source of man-made
radioactivity in the Baltic Sea is fallout
from the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear
power plant in 1986. The most important
radionuclides in the fallout were 137 Cs and
134 Cs. The total input of 137 Cs from Chernobyl
to the Baltic Sea has been estimated at 4,700
TBq, and the post-Chernobyl river discharges
of 137 Cs to the Baltic Sea were estimated at
300 TBq comprising 6-7% of the total fallout.
The second most important source is global
fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons
tests carried out during the late 1950s and
early 1960s. The predominant radionuclides
in the global fallout were 137 Cs and 90 Sr, in
an activity ratio of about 1.6. During the
late 1990s the decay-corrected amounts of
weapons-test 137 Cs and 90 Sr in the Baltic Sea
have been evaluated at 800 and 500 TBq,
respectively.
The corresponding decay-corrected total
inputs to the Baltic Sea of 137 Cs and 90 Sr
originating from nuclear reprocessing plants
in Western Europe have been estimated at
250 and 40 TBq, respectively. These sources
are now only of minor importance, due to
significant reductions in discharges in recent
years.
The predominant radionuclide in discharges
from the nuclear power plants and research
reactors in the Baltic Sea region is 3 H. Total
discharges of 3 H from these local sources
have amounted to 3,200 TBq, and those of
other beta-gamma emitting radionuclides
amounted to about 24 TBq by the end of
2006. The total discharges of alpha emitting
radionuclides have been 0.005 TBq.
For 137 Cs in the Baltic Sea, the main source
is fallout from Chernobyl (82%), followed by
nuclear weapons test fallout (14%). For "Sr,
the main source of contamination is fallout
from nuclear weapons tests (81%), while the
proportion from Chernobyl fallout was smaller
( 13 %).
Today, 137 Cs is the main indicator of man
made radioactivity in Baltic seawater. The
highest concentrations observed in seawater
during the period 1999-2006 were found in
the Baltic Proper and the Bothnian Sea. The
general trend is steadily decreasing. It is
estimated that the target value of 15 Bq/m 3 ,
corresponding to pre-Chernobyl levels, will
be reached between 2020 and 2030. First
estimates of effective half-lives for different
parts of the Baltic Sea have been calculated.
The inventory of 137 Cs in the Baltic seawater in
2006 is estimated at 870 TBq.
The results of the Sediment Baseline
Study carried out by the MORS-PRO
during the reporting period showed that
the concentrations of naturally occurring
radionuclides in Baltic Sea sediments
remain at background levels. However, the
concentrations of man-made radionuclides
are still higher than the target specified
in HELCOM’s ecological objective of
“radioactivity at pre-Chernobyl level”. This is
particularly true for the Bothnian Sea and the
Gulf of Finland, which received the largest
amounts of Chernobyl fallout in the Baltic
Sea. The total inventory of 137 Cs in the Baltic
Sea sediments was estimated at 2,100-2,400
TBq at the beginning of the 2000s, while
the inventories of the naturally occurring
radionuclides 40 K and 226 Ra were estimated
to be about 8,500 and 420 TBq, respectively,
in the uppermost 0-10 cm sediment layer.
Hence, the concentrations of man-made
radionuclides in sediments were generally
at or below the concentrations of naturally
occurring radionuclides.
It remains essential to monitor radioactive
substances in the Baltic Sea to provide
a basis for evaluating time trends and
for understanding the state of the Baltic
marine environment and various aspects of
radioactivity. However, there are still gaps
in our knowledge of radioactivity in the
sediments of the Baltic Sea.