North Atlantic is subject to strong natural variability on time scales of 10 to 30 years which 
are correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). 
It is possible to describe the state of the marine environment by determining integral quantities 
in critical areas. The heat and freshwater transports in the North Atlantic constitute such 
critical quantities characterizing the large-scale or even global climate system. A long-time 
programme like GOOS may help to answer the question how thermohaline changes in the 
North Atlantic Ocean will change hydrographic conditions in the North Sea and affect the 
European climate (reference to BSH-P1) 
Monitoring and investigation methods, analytical methods 
To determine meridional transports, the temperature and salinity distributions have to be 
measured in the entire water column with an eddy-resolving method, i.e. with stations located 
up to 30 nautical miles apart. Additionally, measurements of flow velocities have to be carried 
out in order to be able to compute absolute transports. The water masses involved have to be 
defined not only by temperature and salinity but by additional parameters like oxygen and 
nutrient levels. The measuring methods used so far constitute present state of the art. 
According to experience gained by the BSH, the above objectives will be achieved by 
(1) 55-day transatlantic research cruises every 3 to 5 years on board a medium-sized research 
vessel carrying out a full hydrographic programme 
(2) monthly eddy-resolving measuring programmes using XBTs, XCTDs and thermo- 
salinographs on ships-of-opportunity for a period of at least ten years in the area of the 
dynamic surface layer across the hydrographic section, in order to obtain reliable data on 
seasonal variability 
(3) maintaining the present personnel capacity for data acquisition, processing, and evaluation 
(4) including supplementary data from, e.g., satellites and numerical models. 
Products and services Products and services 
Climate related products still remain to be clearly defined. Apart from the target quantity ’’heat 
content” and the description of the current circulation type, prediction capabilities are to be 
developed for the investigation of the dependence of North Sea hydrography. The product 
thus would be seasonal predictions, in addition to the ’’heat content”. This may be of 
considerable economic importance to agriculture, the transport and energy industries and 
tourism, inter alia. Linkage with the climate-related products of the BSH-P1 programme is 
planned to be achieved. 
BSH-P3 Operational oceanographic services, e.g. water level and storm surge 
predictions, ice service, and German Oceanographic Data Centre (DOD) 
Objectives 
The purpose of BSH‘s oceanographic services is to make available to the public, to the 
agencies of the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration as well as to other state 
authorities short-term predictions on: 
(1) water level development along the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts (Water Level 
Forecasting and Storm Surge Warning Service) 
(2) ice development in the Baltic as well as in Arctic and Antarctic waters (Ice Service) 
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