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Full text: 39E: Storm Surges in the Southern Baltic Sea

64 
CONCLUSIONS 
Since the beginning of the verified observation series in 1950/51, the number of storm surges 
per decade has grown from 13 in the 1950s through 15 and 22 in the next two decades to 34 
in the 1980s. In the last decade of the 20 th century, the number of surges was hardly lower, 
at 32. 
In the two periods studied, i.e. 1950 - 1975 and 1976 - 2000, the mean annual (seasonal) 
distributions differ only in the month of maximum occurrence: in the first 25-year period, 
storm surges were most frequent in November (about 27 % of storm surge events), while in 
the second period from 1976 -2000 the maximum shifted toward January, with about 29 % of 
all storm surges. The storm surge seasons in 1950 - 1975 were also found to be shorter. 
The first seasonal storms occurred as late as September (about 2 %), and the last storm 
events were recorded in March, though with a high frequency of 8 %. 
A characteristic feature of the monthly frequency distribution of storm surges is the absence 
of storm surge events in May, June, and July. 
The storm surge season in the period 1976 - 2000 lasted from the last days of August 
(frequency of 1 %) to April, with about 3 % of all annual storm surges. 
Summarising the above, it can be said that, in comparison with the earlier period reviewed in 
the present study, the probability of storm surge flooding has about doubled towards the end 
of the century.
	        
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